The Daily Alpha 5/1- A daily breakdown of the NFT market with some notes from The God. This is a more detailed version of my breakdown on Twitter. Any and all feedback is welcome!
Otherside Launches with Massive Controversy
Yuga Labs launched their long anticipated metaverse play Otherside to a once in a lifetime gas war followed by a massive sell off. Anyone with half a brain saw this gas war coming. The thinly veiled moral justification by Yuga was simply “Dutch Auctions are wrong!” Which is insanely hypocritical due to their history of dutch auctions with MAYC as well as the dutch auction code they literally programmed into the smart contract. Clearly this was a last second pivot made by Yuga due to revenue modeling clearly showing they would make more money this way. In an attempt to make it look like they were doing this for our good rather than Marc Andreessen’s, they claimed they hated Dutch Auctions. Clearly a deflection from the greedy truth. The gas war led to thousands of people paying $10,000+ in gas. A total act of greed from a company that already has sucked billions out of the market.
Less than 24 hours later the deeds to the land revealed. As predicted in my Otherside article from earlier in the week (https://nftgod.gives/if-you-buy-yuga-labs-land-on-the-secondary-market-you-will-most-likely-lose-money/), prices absolutely dumped. The winners turned out to be those that minted and were able to cash in on the pre reveal hype. In the rare instance your land had a Koda you were also a big winner. The two factors that seemed to have the biggest impact on pricing was if you had a Koda and if your environment was rare. Premiums on land placement seemed to have quickly disappeared on reveal as mutant plots that were going for over 15 ETH dropped all the way down to the floor. We are 6 hours removed from reveal and it appears prices are just slowly sinking. After the reveal I quickly flipped my free plot of land from my mutant. Due to the game being years away and holders patience being short, I believe prices will keep sinking. My prediction- floor prices under 2 eth by end of summer.
The NFT market slightly recovers
After the big launch, many prices across the market started recovering, as predicted in my article from a few weeks ago: (https://nftgod.gives/im-selling-almost-all-of-my-nfts-heres-why/). It wasn’t a full recovery, as hundreds of millions of dollars of ETH was burnt last night during the mint, an event that will take months to recover from. Most blue chip projects had a slight bump up though. Doodles had the most notable recovery, making it to new highs of 22 ETH. Clearly there’s a bit of an alpha leak here. Expect big announcements from Doodles in the near future.
Project I’m Watching: Nike x RTFKT Dunk Genesis
This is one of my highest conviction calls at the moment and the project I’ve spent the most ETH on during this dip. I’ll be writing an article on this in the upcoming days, but I believe this project has the biggest opportunity of bringing new investors to the NFT space. Way bigger of an opportunity than BAYC. Millions of people buy and sell sneakers on StockX. Many of them buy sneakers from retail and then flip them on StockX for profit. An entire economy has been built out of this. If a physical sneaker release is ever announced for this NFT collection, it would immediately bring a large portion of those users to the NFT space. During typical exclusive Nike or Jordan releases there are over 100,000 pairs of shoes sent to retail. They quickly sell out and go for hundreds if not thousands on the resell market. There are only 20k NFT’s in this Nike collection. Resell prices on any sneaker attached to this project could be astronomical. Due to the Nike and RTFKT names I believe the downside is small but the upside is absolutely epic. If you’re looking to move on this project I’d recommend picking up the genesis NFT as well as the Skin Vial.
That's it for me tonight everyone. What an exciting weekend it was. A lot of people made life changing money. Unfortunately a lot of people lost money as well. If you removed emotions and stuck to your investing principles you put yourself in a lot better position to succeed. Talk tomorrow!