Here are some thoughts I wrote down halfway through the mint:
Hey guys it's been a crazy weekend for me, I'm moving soon so I haven't had the time to make my daily newsletter for a couple days. But I just wanted to give you a quick analysis on the current state of the Otherside mint. My analysis at the beginning of the week was only minters would make money and the secondary will be screwed. My new position is that both minters and secondary will be screwed.
We are experiencing an all out gas war right now. Only 25k of the 55k release have minted. Over 45 million dollars of ETH has been sucked out of the market due to gas and this will surely hit 100 million at least before the end of the night. The secondary prices are plummeting. Going on outside this bubble we are living in here is one of the worst macroeconomic environments for risk-on assets ever. Every other risk-on asset across the world is getting pounded. This is about as much chaos and risk as you can possibly have in a project. On top of that there is another 160k supply hitting this project between the rest of the mint, the claim, and the release in a couple months. I simply cannot see how a responsible investor could be making a move here in the mint or on the secondary.
Investing in this type of chaos is just pure gambling. No seasoned investor will be throwing around tens of thousands of dollars in this type of unpredictable environment. If you wouldn’t put $10k down on roulette right now why would you participate in this sale? This is pure gambling at the moment. I guarantee you 99% of people spending $20k on this land + gas right now would faint at the thought of putting $20k down in the casino. There is simply no difference right now.
Every economic headwind you can think of right now is hitting this project and market. I had APE set aside to mint tonight but I’ve cancelled that and sold. The time to buy will be in the future, not tonight, or at least that’s what the pot odds tell me right now.